Why Kamala Harris May Win (or Lose)
Can She Move from VP to P?
I’ve already written about Kamala Harris here and here, including a piece in The Washington Post…
…the video of which is here:
I’ve read, watched, and listened to a ton of coverage since Joe Biden dropped out. And of course, I've written jokes:
"So a sitting president has decided not to run. Run? He can barely stand!"
"Donald Trump gets shot. Joe Biden drops out. Now that is one magic bullet."
But given how my phone blew up after the big news, even though I've largely avoided posting about politics the last four years, I promised I'd share my thoughts. Here are some points I haven’t heard others make — IF she's the nominee:
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗞𝗮𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗮 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗪𝗶𝗻
𝟭.
First of all, screw the voters.
Spoken like a true Brahmin.
I’ve heard the argument that voters already voted and they voted for Biden. That’s nonsense. Biden boxed everyone out so there wasn’t really a primary process. So you can throw this argument in the garbage.
𝟮.
This moment feels entirely different from 2020 — or really, 2019, since her campaign fizzled before the Iowa primaries. Hasan Minhaj once made the point to me that Lil Wayne was rockin’ dreadlocks for years and had to wait his turn for that to be in fashion. It’s not like he kept changing his hair. He had dreadlocks and he was stickin’ wit ’em, dammit. Kamala was a DA. She was an AG. She’s a cop. In the wake of George Floyd, that wasn’t gonna play. Now that crime is more of an issue (though it is down), her image as more of a law-and-order candidate might make this her time.
𝟯.
Any generic Democrat beats Donald Trump, and any generic Republican beats Joe Biden. Ironically, these two men were the only people who could lose the election for their side. About 80% of the American public did not want Trump versus Biden. The Democrats have actually responded to this. And they might be rewarded for it.
𝟰.
I texted this to a few of my conservative friends right before Trump took the stage to accept the Republican nomination at the RNC: “What we will witness over the course of the next 100 days is the most epic collapse of a presidential campaign in modern history.” Trump was on a run, my friends. And then, I think Trump peaked right about 10 minutes into his speech. His tale about the attempted assassination was absolutely captivating. It was the last, let’s call it, 82 minutes when he unraveled. Had he stopped after about 15 minutes, he’d probably be up at least six points on any Democrat, putting it out of reach.
𝟱.
Picking JD Vance as your VP is a move you make when you think you’re going to win in a blowout. It was not a move of outreach but rather firing up the base. And it might end up costing him the election. I ain't knockin' my home state — I used to travel to Middletown, Ohio, every Tuesday for orchestra practice — but Vance got him NOTHING he didn't already have.
𝟲.
I would not have voted for Joe Biden. When I posted that on Facebook, I got angry texts. I even made this statement to a couple of the organizers when I was about to go onstage for the South Asian Bar Association in Toronto. I said (and they know) that I had campaigned hard for Biden and Harris, but that I would not be doing so in 2024. Though the gig went well, it was a tense conversation. So I had already gone public with this. And I’m telling you, I could not have been the only one. Harris will get support from people who were done with Biden.
I have already been asked by a group called South Asians for Harris to campaign for her. And I have tentatively agreed. We have a Zoom call tonight. I did say that she is going to need to do a lot more for Desis because she has mostly leaned into her Black half, not her Brown half. (For all the coconut talk, she is a Reese’s Cup.) I get it. Cynically, it is a larger voting bloc. Sincerely, I believe it is more part of her experience. And that is all fine. But she needs to show Asians that she is Asian and will advocate for issues important to us, too.
𝟳.
We have time. If Kamala Harris is able to pull this off, it will be the equivalent of Christopher Plummer's replacement of Kevin Spacey in the film All The Money in the World, proving that you don’t need months to rehearse for a role. Acting just is not THAT hard. And we’re about to find out whether politics is.
𝟴.
The Left is now FIRED UP. Harris might be the shot in the arm it needed. Will this initial enthusiasm last? Actually, probably. It’s only about a 100-day sprint. And asking energy to last through the summer or winter is hard. Coasting through a spring or a fall is easy.
𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗞𝗮𝗺𝗮𝗹𝗮 𝗠𝗮𝘆 𝗟𝗼𝘀𝗲
𝟭.
At first glance, a Black woman from California is gonna defeat Trump? In the end, if she loses, the analysis might truly be that simple.
𝟮.
Harris is vying to be a First. First female. First Black. First Brown. Donald Trump is making a play for Last: his last (latter) term would save him from almost certain legal peril. He ran out the clock for the 2024 election but won’t for the rest of his life. He has more to lose.
𝟯.
Up to the RNC, Trump had run a very disciplined campaign. Not at his unhinged rallies, but whenever he was in the national spotlight. Perhaps the best example is he has learned his lesson from scorning early voting in 2020 and is encouraging his voters to vote early. That alone will drive up his numbers.
𝟰.
Barack Obama was half-White so White people still had half of the presidency. Kamala Harris is half-Black and half-Brown, so this would be the first time in history White people have no parts of the presidency. Are we ready for it?
𝟱.
Harris may very well be viewed as a DEI candidate. And this claim, with some of its roots in racism and sexism, is not entirely without merit. After all, Biden selected her based on her identity. Democrats not only knew this but also fully supported it. So, we can’t have it both ways. Her identity either matters or it doesn’t. Biden also called his shot when he appointed Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court. Is she qualified? Beyond question. But when you state what you're going to do, and people call out what you did, how do you claim that isn't what you did?
Moreover, Harris hasn’t proven herself. She almost lost her races to a Republican — in California. And she hasn’t yet done anything super impressive in office. (Though I’d fault the Biden Administration for holding her back.)
It was the voters, not the élites, that called for the ouster of Joe Biden. In fact, the élites did their best to defend their President. (And yes, I prefer the spelling with an accent mark.) Keep in mind that only a handful of elected national officials got on-board. It’s not like it was 50 Senators and 200 Representatives.
But is this the way we want the first woman of color to be president? There is an argument to be made that she’s the Vice President AND the Vice Presidential candidate, so she’s next in line. Got it. But if she gets in, without the primary process, we might not be pronouncing her name as she recommends “Comma-La,” but “Asterisk-La.”
The analogy that comes to mind is a baseball team using its ace pitcher to make it into the playoffs. Now you're without your starter in Game 1. Right, but you wouldn't even be there had you not done that. The Democrats probably needed a Black woman to get over the line in 2020. Will it come back to bite them now?
However, the ironic parallel is the New York case against Trump. Was the case bullshit? Yeah, kinda. But if you can get a jury of his peers to convict, then it legitimizes it. And so it is with the voters. If we go for it, then it's legit. And so it is with Kevin Hart winning the Mark Twain Prize for American Humor. It's kinda bullshit but if you can get Dave Chappelle, Chris Rock, and Jerry Seinfeld (who doesn't have one) to speak for you, then it's legit.
𝟲.
It is a mistake to think of any race of people as a monolith. But you can bet Harris will not pull as much White support as Biden would have.
As Biden lost support, polls showed he flagged badly with Whites and Latinos. Guess who stayed by his side. Black folks. Louis C.K. (rest in peace) talked about how people always wonder who will stick by you in your times of trouble. The answer? Black people. There’s been no greater real life illustration of this point. I would highly recommend that you google and watch Van Jones' tearful statement when he heard that Biden was leaving the race. It is hard to feel for public figures, especially politicians and pundits, but wow, that man was loyal and he makes the point that the Presidency is something Joe Biden always wanted and he deserved better.
Back in social studies class in the 1900s, we discussed whether we would have a woman president first or a Black president first. I remember saying that I think we will have a Black president first (easy to say now but take my word for it) because races are racist against each other, but there is sexism within the races. Howard Zinn called women “the intimately oppressed.” Let’s not forget that Black women are the core of the Democratic Party, but there is a lot of resentment right now on the part of men towards women. It is no longer purely a man’s world and that is a good thing. I am a feminist. But I know as a male there is bitterness toward the strides females have made, so even though Kamala Harris will experience huge gains among Black women, do not be surprised if that number is not commensurate for Black men in the same way it was for Barack Obama.
𝟳.
A corrolary: One surefire way to turn men off is to say that critiques of Harris’ laugh are sexist. That is not fair. Anywhere on the gender spectrum, her laugh would be seen as fake and insincere. Andrew Yang is a man and he has the same problem. He laughs in weird places in a weird way. And I know that women get mad when you tell them to smile, but male comedians have gone through the same thing. Bill Burr and Sebastian Maniscalco both blew up when they started smiling and laughing on stage. Before that, they were viewed as too aggressive. I watched it happen in front of my own eyes. And they are pretty darn male. And before you say I cannot comment on this because I am not a woman, let me remind you that I am a comedian. And even though this isn't the funniest post I've ever written, I am sure I know laughter better than you do.
𝟴.
Trump Fatigue might be lower because he’s not in office. The more we see of him, the more his numbers might drop. But if he refuses to debate Harris or otherwise lays low, people might not have the opportunity to allow their hate to blossom again. Fortunately, he’s very much like Jack Nicholson in The Departed: “Laying low isn’t what I do.”
𝟵.
One of the best observations I’ve heard about Harris is that she can sure prosecute a case. Of course she can. She’s literally a prosecutor. She’s a former DA. She’s a former Attorney General. When she is focused, she can really drive a point home. Listen to her thunder away about abortion. But she is not an orator. Women rarely are. Is that sexist? Yes. But against men. Men are AMAZING at BULLSHIT. We can BS people right off the stage. A woman at that level is driven. She needs to show intense focus to win at a man’s game. And soaring rhetoric isn’t her thing. For better or for worse, Americans need a little soaring rhetoric from time to time. Whether you agree with Trump or not, dude can paint a picture. You can lose on this alone.
𝟭𝟬.
Harris is like the new character in a reality show. Not new to the show, but previous a recurring character who’s now a lead. She’s the shiny object. One of the big watchouts here is we live in a capitalistic society. I am a diehard capitalist, but when everything is done for the dollar, it can foster bad decisions. Aaron Sorkin covered this in the otherwise shitty show The Newsroom on HBO. The original covenant was that networks would get 23 hours where they could receive paid advertising but would give up one — just one — for news as a public service. When news became entertainment, they asked for that hour back and now give the people what they want. (Guess what: the subscription model isn’t any better. Turns out if people are paying for their news out of their own pockets that they’d rather be lied to even more than when advertisers were footing the bill.) So, make no mistake: the media got what they wanted. They wanted ratings and this is going to drive ratings. Is it going to drive us off a cliff? That is the question.
𝗦𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗙𝘂𝗻 𝗣𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀
The reason the left was so shocked by Biden’s decline is the mainstream media had hidden it from us. My friend Steve Hacker expressed surprise that I did not know what Fox News had been showing us this for years. This is what happens when the boy cries wolf. Right-wing media had destroyed its credibility (like left-wing media had done for conservatives) so liberals simply didn’t believe it.
Should Biden resign? Absolutely not. Do you remember Joe Versus the Volcano? “Harry, Harry. I know he can GET the job, but can he DO the job?” That was the question Tom Hanks’ boss Mr. Waturi kept yelling into the phone. This is the reverse. Joe Biden can still do the job, especially now that he doesn’t have to run for president. He can focus. Let him do that.
The sample size of presidential elections is small, but I do feel like James Polk was the model for Joe Biden. Come in, kill it for four years, and GTFO.
In the series that CNN made about the decades, I remember the opening to the episode 1968: “1968 was just one goddamn thing after the other.” In our naivete, we thought 2020 was gonna give 1968 a run for its money until we got to 2024. 2024 is like, “Check this shit out.”
That said, we don’t make 'em like we used to: 1968 had real assassinations; we have attempted assassinations. LBJ dropped out like a man. JRB kinda whimpered his way out. So I think 1968 still wins.
𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗹𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻
I will not yet make a prediction (though I went with 10 points against vs. 8 points for), because we need to see how the game is played. But my guess is that the cake was baked this past December when Biden decided to run for president. I had a sense of dread then and we have now lost seven months in this process. However, I have heard it floated that, if he was gonna wait this long, it was a master stroke to wait until after the RNC because Republicans had no target. They stole the news cycle right after Trump’s peak and have all eyes on them for the foreseeable future. Of course, as the quote goes, “There’s no such thing as the foreseeable future.”
You know what this is going to come down to? Because this is about ratings, it’s this simple: would the media rather see a second Trump administration or see Trump go to trial? What about you? Which one is more fun? That’s how you could vote and that is what could determine this election.
𝘙𝘢𝘫𝘪𝘷 𝘚𝘢𝘵𝘺𝘢𝘭 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢𝘯. 𝘏𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘩𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘒𝘢𝘮𝘢𝘭𝘢 𝘏𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘴. 𝘈𝘯𝘥 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘶𝘥 𝘤𝘰𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘶𝘵.